Appointment of a service provider for provision of research services to develop a skills forecasting planning report for the occupational qualifications sub-framework (oqsf)

Closing date: 2026-02-20 (as per tender record). The project must be concluded by 31 March 2027. The first comprehensive OQSF forecast will be conducted in the following financial year (2027/2028).

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Submit the bid in accordance with the tender instructions. The returnable documents include: a completed and signed SBD 4 (Declaration of Interest), SBD 3.1 (Pricing Schedule), SBD 8 (Declaration of Bidder's Past Supply Chain Management Practices), SBD 9 (Certificate of Independent Bid Determination), and the completed Pricing Schedule (with the agreement term and payment frequency as specified). The service provider must submit a proposal demonstrating capacity, expertise, and key personnel CVs. Bids received after the closing time will be disqualified.

Evaluation will consider the service provider's capacity and expertise, the proposed methodology, key personnel, and the ability to implement the project in an innovative and cost-effective manner with clear timelines and deliverables. The provider must submit an overview of key personnel, including roles, CVs and relevant experience.

1.1. The Quality Council for Trades and Occupations (QCTO) was established in 2010 under the

amended Skills Development Act No. . It is the custodian of the Occupational

Qualifications Sub-Framework (OQSF), one of the three integrated Sub-Frameworks of

the National Qualifications Framework (NQF).

1.2. One of the main responsibilities of the QCTO is to develop Qualifications, Part- Qualifications

and Skills Programmes that give people access to Occupations and Trades. Section 26H

of the Skills Development Act (SDA) requires the QCTO to establish, maintain, design,

and develop occupational standards and qualifications, and to advise the Minister on their

suitability and adequacy.

1.3. Section 27 of the NQF Act requires each Quality Council (QC) to ensure that the

Qualifications and Part-Qualifications necessary for its sector are developed, and to

conduct or commission research on issues of importance to the development and

implementation of its sub-framework.

1.4. Clause 15.1 of the OQSF Policy, 2021 requires Occupational Qualifications, Part-

Qualifications and Skills Programmes to be developed based on market demand or

potential market demand, supported by reputable research covering the formal and

informal economies. The policy therefore requires proof of demand rather than policy

alignment. It accepts potential demand as well as current demand, and it covers both the

formal and informal economies.

1.5. Under the current model, qualification development is initiated only through applications

submitted by Quality Partners. The QCTO therefore receives applications rather than

demand and has no independent evidence base against which to test the market demand

claims it receives, to prioritise between competing applications, or to identify occupational

needs for which no application has been submitted.

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

1.6. South Africa is not without skills anticipation instruments. The list of Occupations in High

Demand (OIHD), SETA Sector Skills Plans (SSPs), the Critical Skills List and related

national Labour Market Intelligence (LMI) research all identify occupational demand and

shortage, and each serves a legitimate purpose within its own mandate. They are not,

however, coordinated with one another, and none of them is designed to answer the

question the QCTO must answer. They indicate that an occupation is in demand; they do

not indicate whether that demand warrants a new occupational qualification, the review or

replacement of an existing one, a part qualification or a skills programme, nor whether the

OQSF already provides for the occupation.

1.7. The gap is therefore not an absence of labour market information, but the absence of skills

anticipation directed specifically at qualification development. What the QCTO requires is

anticipation conducted at the level of occupations and competencies, mapped against the

qualifications registered on the OQSF, and translated into defined qualification actions.

1.8. The QCTO seeks to appoint a professional and competent research service provider to

support it in developing a Skills Forecasting Planning Report for the OQSF. The Planning

Report will establish how skills forecasting for the OQSF should be conducted and

translated into qualification decisions.

1.9. This project constitutes the first phase of a two-phase initiative. It does not include the

production of a forecast. The first comprehensive OQSF forecast will be conducted in the

following financial year (2027/2028), applying the method established through this project.

2. Objectives

The study aims to achieve the following objectives:

2.1. To review South African and international skills forecasting and anticipation practice, and to

assess the applicability of the available methodologies to the OQSF context, with

particular attention to the level of occupational detail required for qualification decisions

and to consider the informal and formal economy.

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

2.2. To audit the data and systems available for forecasting, assessing each source for coverage,

timeliness, and occupational detail to identify data gaps and the arrangements required to

address them.

2.3. To map the current qualification development value chain, establishing what triggers Quality

Partners to apply for qualification development, what criteria are applied in practice when

applications are evaluated, and where demand evidence enters the chain, where it does

not, and where it is not revisited.

2.4. To consult the stakeholders that generate and use occupational information, including the

QCTO, SETAs, public and private providers (SDPs and TVETs).

2.5. To recommend a forecasting methodology appropriate to the QCTO context, capable of

operating at a minimum viable level on presently available data, with a phased path as

data and systems improve, including data inputs, analytical methods, time horizons,

forecasting cycle, and the treatment and reporting of uncertainty.

2.6. To develop a qualifications decision framework setting out transparent criteria for determining

when evidence supports the development of a new occupational qualification, the review

or replacement of an existing Qualification, the development of a Part-Qualification or

Skills Programme, realignment or deactivation, or continued monitoring. The criteria are

to include the strength and duration of demand, occupational distinctiveness, geographic

and sectoral spread, task and competency change, relationship to existing qualifications,

regulatory considerations, supply constraints, likely learner and provider uptake, and the

confidence attached to the evidence.

2.7. To specify the institutional arrangements, governance, roles and responsibilities, capacity

and systems required, and to produce a phased implementation roadmap with indicative

resourcing and costing for the first forecasting cycle.

2.8. To produce a comprehensive Planning Report consolidating the above, that the QCTO can

implement.

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

3. Technical specifications

3.1. The successful service provider must have a proven capacity and expertise to undertake a

project of this nature and complete it by the due date.

3.2. The Team Leader must have at least a Masters Degree or higher in Economics, Statistics,

Development Studies, Education or a related discipline, with a minimum of 10 years' total

research experience, of which at least 5 years must relate to labour market analysis, skills

anticipation or skills planning in South Africa.

3.3. The project team must collectively demonstrate expertise in labour market and quantitative

analysis, skills forecasting methodology, qualitative research and stakeholder

consultation, and data management.

3.4. The service provider must demonstrate a sound understanding of the NQF, the OQSF, the

role of the QCTO in the skills development sector, and the Occupational Qualification

development process in South Africa.

3.5. The service provider must provide evidence that they have undertaken similar or related

research projects before, with contactable references.

3.6. The service provider must provide an overview of the key personnel to be used on this project,

including their roles, accompanied by the Curriculum Vitae (CV) and relevant experience

of all team members who will be responsible for this project.

3.7. The service provider must describe how skills will be transferred to QCTO officials during the

project, so that the methodology developed can be applied and maintained by the QCTO

in subsequent forecasting cycles.

3.8. The service provider must be able to implement the project in an innovative and cost-effective

manner, with clear proposed timelines and deliverables.

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

4. Work schedule

4.1. Upon selection, the service provider will enter a formal contract with the QCTO, which will

outline the terms of agreement, deliverables, timelines and payment schedules. The

contract will also specify confidentiality agreements and intellectual property rights

regarding research outcomes.

4.2. The service provider will report to the QCTO Research & Analysis Unit. The Deputy Director:

Statistical Reporting will serve as the Project Manager for the QCTO and will hold regular

meetings with the service provider to report on deliverables and track progress.

4.3. The QCTO will facilitate access to internal records relating to qualification development

applications and decisions, provide relevant policies, forms, and documentation, convene

internal participants for consultations, and review deliverables within agreed timeframes.

4.4. The provider will be expected to share and deliver all data, analysis files and research

instruments in the format approved by the QCTO.

4.8. The QCTO shall be the owner of all data collected, the datasets, methodologies, instruments,

reports, and other documents prepared for this research project. All records, reports and

information related to the project must be submitted to the QCTO before the final payment.

4.9. In circumstances where the provider wishes to publish the findings derived from the research

project data, the provider must submit a special request to Research & Analysis, which

the CEO of the QCTO will approve.

4.10. The service provider will be required from the date that they are appointed until the project

is concluded by 31 March 2027. The key deliverables will be targeted as such:

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

Activity No. Phase Key Deliverables

1. Inception Phase An inception report covering the following:

● Roadmap of the project.

● Detailed work plan of activities.

● Defining project objectives and deliverables.

● Detailed methodology and research instruments.

2. Design Phase Completion of the literature review and benchmarking

of South African and international skills forecasting

practice.

● Finalisation of the stakeholder consultation plan

and sample.

3. Data and systems Audit of national, sectoral, and QCTO-held data

audit sources, assessed for coverage, timeliness,

occupational detail, quality and suitability for

forecasting.

● Submission of the data and systems audit report,

including the gap analysis.

4. Data collection Mapping of the qualification development value chain,

including the analysis of a documented sample of

applications and internal decision records.

● Conducting interviews and consultations with the

identified stakeholders.

● Submission of the raw data in an approved format.

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

Activity No. Phase Key Deliverables

5. Implementation Analyse the data collected and design the forecasting

Phase methodology, the qualifications decision framework,

and the implementation roadmap.

● Submit the cleaned data in the format approved by

the QCTO.

5. Implementation Initiate the report writing and submit the draft Planning

Phase Report to the QCTO.

5. Implementation The QCTO will review the draft report and share the

Phase comments and inputs with the provider.

5. Implementation Submit the final Planning Report to the QCTO and

Phase present it to QCTO management and the relevant

committees.

Work schedule and deliverables: The project includes an Inception Phase (inception report with roadmap, work plan, objectives, methodology), Design Phase (literature review, benchmarking, stakeholder consultation plan), Data and systems audit (audit of national, sectoral, and QCTO data sources, gap analysis), Data collection (mapping the qualification development value chain, interviews, consultations, submission of raw data), Implementation (analyse data, design forecasting methodology, qualifications decision framework, implementation roadmap, submit cleaned data, draft Planning Report, incorporate QCTO comments, submit final report and present to QCTO management and committees).

a) Agreement Term: The report must be concluded by 31 March 2027.

b) Payment Frequency: Payments will be made in tranches, in accordance with the key

deliverables and targets.

The enquiries can be made via email to:

Deputy Director: Statistical Reporting Nthabeleng Lepota, on email: [email protected]

ToR for the OQSF Skills Forecasting Planning Report 2026/2027

committees.

5. Pricing Schedule

a) Agreement Term: The report must be concluded by 31 March 2027.

b) Payment Frequency: Payments will be made in tranches, in accordance with the key

deliverables and targets.

Contractual terms: The service provider will enter a formal contract with the QCTO outlining terms of agreement, deliverables, timelines and payment schedules, including confidentiality agreements and intellectual property rights. The QCTO shall be the owner of all data collected, datasets, methodologies, instruments, reports and other documents. All records must be submitted before final payment. Publication of findings requires special request to Research & Analysis, approved by the CEO.

The service provider must have proven capacity and expertise to undertake the project and complete it by the due date. They must demonstrate experience in labour market analysis, skills anticipation or skills planning in South Africa, and provide evidence of similar research projects with contactable references. Key personnel must be identified with CVs and relevant experience. The provider must be able to implement the project in an innovative and cost-effective manner with clear proposed timelines and deliverables.

Objectives: 2.1 Review South African and international skills forecasting and anticipation practice, assessing applicability to the OQSF context, with attention to occupational detail and the informal and formal economy. 2.2 Audit data and systems available for forecasting, assessing coverage, timeliness, occupational detail, and identifying data gaps. 2.3 Map the current qualification development value chain, establishing triggers for applications, criteria applied in practice, and where demand evidence enters the chain. 2.4 Consult stakeholders that generate and use occupational information, including QCTO, SETAs, public and private providers. 2.5 Recommend a forecasting methodology appropriate to the QCTO context, capable of operating at a minimum viable level on presently available data, with a phased path as data and systems improve. 2.6 Develop a qualifications decision framework setting out transparent criteria for determining when evidence supports the development of a new occupational qualification, review or replacement, part-qualification or skills programme, realignment or deactivation, or continued monitoring. 2.7 Specify institutional arrangements, governance, roles, responsibilities, capacity and systems required, and produce a phased implementation roadmap with indicative resourcing and costing. 2.8 Produce a comprehensive Planning Report consolidating the above.